Relax: Leo Hasn’t Been Unfairly Snubbed By Oscar Voters

Popular opinion is that DiCaprio should have won an Oscar years ago, but data shows he's actually right on schedule

Could this be the end of Bad Luck Leo? — (Photos: Getty Images, Photo Illustration: Diana Quach/Vocativ)
Jan 15, 2016 at 1:35 PM ET

Sad Leo memes, be damned: Leonardo DiCaprio is not actually overdue an Oscar. Leo won his third Golden Globe at Sunday night’s awards in Beverly Hills, and a Vocativ analysis shows his win for The Revenant finally qualifies him to win his first Academy Award next month—right on time.

Eleven years have passed since Leo won his first Golden Globe for 2005’s The Aviator. He was nominated for the corresponding Academy Award, but lost out to Jamie Foxx’s performance in Ray. DiCaprio landed his second Globe for his turn in 2014’s The Wolf of Wall Street, and was once again nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor. But the Academy crowned Matthew McConaughey instead. However, if more than five decades of Globes and Oscars are anything to go on, 2016 is Leo’s year.

Leo took home the Best Performance By An Actor In A Motion Picture – Drama award at the 73rd Golden Globes Sunday night, an accolade typically considered to be a stepping stone to an Oscar. A Vocativ analysis of every Golden Globes and Academy Awards nominee for best actor and best supporting actor since 1965 reveals male nominees typically need to win at least three Globes before they are bestowed the industry’s most coveted prize.

With three Globes on his mantelpiece, Leo is more likely than any actor on Variety, Forbes and Indiewire nominations prediction lists to win the Oscar for Best Actor at the 88th annual Academy Awards on February 28. But DiCaprio isn’t home free: He could yet be beaten by Indiewire‘s predicted nod Michael Caine (Youth), who bucks the trend, having won two Oscars despite just two Globe wins. And Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), chosen on every prediction list Vocativ considered, has also beaten the average, turning his first Globe and Oscar nods for 2014’s The Theory of Everything into impressive wins.

Whatever happens, Leo, we still think you’re the king of the world.