How Many Fighters Does ISIS Have?

Nobody knows how big ISIS is—especially not Jeb Bush.

Bush said on Wednesday that ISIS has around 200,000 fighters, a drastic jump from the CIA’s latest figures. After people began to call out Bush on his math, an aide told the Daily Beast that Bush had misspoken and meant to say 20,000.

But what’s the real number? As the intelligence community and foreign officials have tried to put a finger on how many soldiers fight for the Islamic State, the amount of fighters has been shifting drastically. Therefore, results vary. Wildly.

The CIA’s first estimate was around 10,000 to 20,000 fighters, but recent reports suggest that the number has quadrupled. Russia put the number closer to 70,000, but estimates from sources in the region have set the figure much higher.

Hisham al-Hashimi, a security expert in Baghdad, told Mashable last August that there were around 100,000 ISIS fighters, while Fuad Hussein, Kurdish President Massoud Barzani’s chief of staff, was quoted in November saying that ISIS could mobilize at least 200,000 fighters. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes that figures of between 100,000 and 200,000 make sense, given the size of the population in Syria and Iraq that ISIS hopes to control. But as ISIS’ sphere of influence continues to spread, and as allied strikes continue to attack the group where it operates, the actual number of fighters is in flux.

Note: When ranges were given, the higher estimate was used.

Sources from top to bottom: Fuad Hussein via The IndependentHisham al-Hashimi via MashableDaveed Gartenstein-Ross via War on the RocksRussian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov via TASS NewsSyrian Observatory for Human Rights via Al-JazeeraCIA via the New York ObserverCIA via CNNCongressional TranscriptsCIA via CNNGen. Lloyd Austin via The Daily Beast

SOCIETY

Porn's Race Problem

Tracy Clark-Flory
US POLITICS

We Played Rand Paul's Space Invader Game So You Don't Have To

Jennings Brown
SYRIA

Migrant Rescue Charity Gets $1 Million In Donations After Viral Photo

Saar Fresco
CRIME

Teens Involved In "Experimental" Sexting Don't Often Face Prosecution

Tracy Clark-Flory
JUSTICE

A Brief History Of: Kim Davis Vs. Gay America

Jennings Brown
Data

Jim Harbaugh Has About a 50% Chance of Being a Good College Coach

Thomas MacMillan
SAUDI ARABIA

The Price For Saudi Support On Iran Deal? U.S. Help In Yemen War

Shane Dixon Kavanaugh
SYRIA

These 13 Photos Show The Faces Of Syrian Refugee Struggle

Ryan Beckler